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Slashed Foreign Aid May Cost 9.4 Million Lives by 2030, Study Says
- February 4, 2026
- I. Edwards HealthDay Reporter
Cuts to foreign aid are already shutting down soup kitchens, limiting medicine supplies and reducing food rations in some of the world’s poorest countries.
Now, new research suggests the damage could get much worse.
A study published Feb. 2 in The Lancet estimates that ongoing cuts in global aid could lead to 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030 if current trends continue.
Researchers said shrinking support from the U.S. and other wealthy nations could undo decades of progress fighting diseases like HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria, and worsen hunger in vulnerable regions.
The study comes roughly a year after the Trump administration shut down the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
Other major donors, including France, Germany and the United Kingdom, have also cut back funding as they shift money toward domestic goals.
In 2024, the U.S. provided about 30% of all global development aid, more than twice as much as Germany, the next largest donor.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development projected that worldwide aid would drop between 9% and 17% in 2025, after falling 9% the previous year.
Countries in sub-Saharan Africa could see cuts of up to 28%.
The new analyis — led by researchers at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health — looked at what might happen if aid continues to fall 10.6% a year after 2025. Under a more severe scenario, deaths could rise by as many as 22.6 million.
“It is the dismantling of an architecture that took 80 years to build,” Dr. Rajiv Shah, president of the Rockefeller Foundation and former head of USAID, told The Washington Post.
The U.S. State Department pushed back on the findings. In a statement it said “some recent ‘studies’ are rooted in outdated thinking, insisting that the old and inefficient global development system is the only solution to human suffering. This is simply not true.”
It continued: “Rather than helping recipient countries help themselves, the old system created a global culture of dependency, compounded by significant inefficiency and waste. This has prompted development donors everywhere — not just the United States — to reconsider their approach to foreign aid.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also defended the changes, saying the U.S. will still provide foreign aid, but "the right way."
Last year, Rubio said, “Anybody who tells you that somehow it’s the United States, if we cut a dollar, somehow we’re responsible for some horrific thing that’s going on in the world, it’s just not true."
Still, health experts warn that sudden funding cuts can break fragile systems.
Davide Rasella, a researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health who was involved in the study, said even small disruptions can have big consequences.
“In a complex health care system, even if you take out a part, you collapse the system,” Rasella said.
In the wake of USAID’s elimination, the U.S. has launched an “America First” global health strategy and made health deals with some countries.
Congress is also considering a bill that would provide $9.4 billion for international health in 2026, more than double what the administration requested, but still below budgets of $12.4 billion for both 2024 and 2025.
Researchers say it’s hard to predict what comes next. But many worry the worst may still be ahead.
“What is happening out there is a human catastrophe,” Shah said. "To me, it’s also a big signal that in this moment, action saves lives.”
More information
KFF has 10 things to know about global health.
SOURCE: The Washington Post, Feb. 2, 2026
